Evidentiary Substantiation of an Expert’s Conclusion on Lost Profits of Agro-Industrial Enterprises in a Combat Zone

Abstract

This paper substantiates an evidentiary model for an expert’s conclusion on the lost profits of agro-industrial enterprises in a combat zone. The aim of the study is to determine the minimum set of evidence required to distinguish actual income losses from unsubstantiated forecast assumptions. It is proposed to combine financial statements, production documentation, agronomic data, market prices, logistical evidence, and spatial verification of war-related impact. The result is an evidentiary matrix that an expert can use to verify causation, the loss period, avoided costs, and the reliability of the counterfactual scenario. The methodology is oriented toward practical application in forensic economic examination, increases the transparency of net financial result assessment, and accounts for the seasonality of agricultural production, logistical constraints, market volatility, and the duty to mitigate damages in a dispute.