Road Infrastructure Investment and Internal Migration in Albania: A District-Level Analysis of Spatial Heterogeneity (2014–2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21453234Keywords:
road infrastructure, internal migration, siphon effect, demographic polarisation, regional disparity, Albania, Western Balkans.Abstract
Albania's population declined 15.3% between 2014 and 2024 — from 2,822,902 to approximately 2,390,942 inhabitants — driven by international emigration and intense internal redistribution toward Tirana. Over the same period, Albania invested approximately 1,547 million euros in road infrastructure through the Albanian Road Authority (ARRSH), applying Bank of Albania annual exchange rates and retaining only physically realized construction works. This investment generated pronounced spatial heterogeneity across 12 districts: from 427.6 million euros in Gjirokastër (580 €/inhabitant/year) to just 17.0 million euros in Shkodër (9 €/inhabitant/year). Using an original dataset constructed from ARRSH administrative budget records and INSTAT civil registry statistics (2014–2024), this paper provides the first district-level descriptive analysis of the relationship between road investment and internal migration in Albania. The findings reveal a paradox consistent with the siphon-effect hypothesis: the districts receiving the highest investment record persistent net out-migration. At the same time, Tirana — with only 37 €/inhabitant/year — maintains a chronic positive balance of +9,090 persons per year. Temporal analysis across three sub-periods (2014–2016, 2017–2020, 2021–2024) confirms that this paradox deepens with increasing investment intensity. A four-channel transmission mechanism is proposed to explain how road corridors amplify rather than reduce demographic polarisation in contexts of extreme urban primacy.
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